Friday April 3rd, 2020

After a volatile week which has seen US Jobless claims hit a record 6.6mio, coronavirus cases breach +1 million and related deaths totaled +54k. US$ index against a basket of major currencies rallied +4% as investors return to US$S safe haven buying. Talk of a truce between Russia & Saudi Arabia helped Brent crude rally +30% since Monday. The focus now shifts to US Nonfarm payrolls, March unemployment rate and Non-Manufacturing PMI data out this morning in the US for direction.

Saudi Arabia calls for an emergency OPEC+ meeting to discuss supply cuts estimated around 10mio bpd. Also, OPEC will focus on the US President’s & US Oil executives meeting for signs of US cuts indicating support to OPEC+. C$ rallied on stronger oil prices, but its rallied faded as it faced a rallying US$. 1.4080 support remains intact, a break will see 1.3920 next with intraday resistance 1.4250. US data and Oil supply cut developments will dictate intraday direction.

Euro fell to a rallying US$, Euro is sitting on the key 1.0800 support level. EU remains divided over a single economic relief strategy with calls for a “corona bond”. EU finance ministers appear unable to come to a compromise, which is putting pressure on the single currency. Intraday US data results will provide direction to the single currency. A clean break of 1.0800 yields 1.0640 next support level, resistance remains at 1.1050 level vs US$.

GBP fell 1% vs US$ after UK services PMI came out worse than expected, at historic lows. UK remains in lockdown, with virus cases growing quickly to +34k and related deaths jumping to +2900. GBP remains at the mercy of US$ in the short term and US data releases will dictate intraday direction. A break of 1.2250 could see 1.1980 support level next, with resistance remaining at 1.2450.