Friday February 1st, 2019

CAD remains strong thanks to oil and metals strength. There has been no pullback even though CAD is the OECD’s strongest currency so far this year. Look for continued steady strength today and in the longer term.

The USD Index is quietly weaker. Expect more of the same today after yesterday’s economic data were very mixed. Jobless Claims jumped, but new home sales were also higher. China and US trade talks are now expected to be finalized by March 1st.

Sterling is weaker this morning. Blame is being placed on a weak UK Purchasing Manufacturers Index. A more likely culprit is the large outflows of a now much higher valued currency paying for huge stock piles of imported goods as manufacturers, retailers and citizens stock up before the final Brexit vote. The EUR is stronger this morning, but it will fall back. The ECB announced yesterday that German growth will slow to below 1.5% for 2019 and that that trend will likely continue for years. Germany is the EU’s economic engine, so it will be hard for the ECB to raise rates anytime soon.

Key Economic Numbers:                    Forecast   Previous

US Non-Farm Payrolls                           170,000     312,000

US Unemployment Rate                        3.9%         3.9%

US Participation Rate                            63.0%       63.1%

US Manufacturing PMI                          54.2          54.3

CAD Manufacturing PMI                        53.9          53.6