Friday July 5th, 2019

US returns from 4th July holiday to the release of Non-Farm Payrolls (8.30am). It is largely expected that the FED will cut rates in July despite expected wage gains and job growth. Trade talks next week between China/US will become a key focal points for the markets again.

Canadian economy is rebounding, firmer oil prices and the prospects of a FED cut while BOC holds, could be the incentive for C$ extended rally. C$ strengthened 4% year to date, currently holding at key 1.3050 level, a breach could see further extension to 1.2778 (Oct2018). Unemployment data out at 8.30 today.

Eur remains under pressure as German industrial goods data feel more than expected, highlighting the economic slowdown is starting. Sliding Government bond rates are adding pressure for further stimulus, Eur is close to 3 week lows vs US$.

GBP continues to weaken on the back of poor economic data, adding to expectations of a possible BOE easing. July will be a difficult month for GBP with uncertainty over government leadership and lack of Brexit strategy.