Friday May 31st, 2019

US threat to place tariffs on Mexico saw US$ and Yen rally on safe-haven buying. Recession risk is growing, the probably of a FED rate cut 2020 is increasing. US/China trade concerns, Brexit, EU political uncertainty and EU in the process of renegotiating trade with US. A lot of variables out there that can impact the currency markets and which are making investors nervous.

 

US$ rallying vs C$ to the highs of Jan19 as oil had its second largest daily drop in 2019. The threat of tariffs on Mexico could impact the USMCA which is in the process of ratification. The prospect of a further sell off in C$ looks probable.

 

Concern over Italian budgeting plans and the EU commissions response continues to have a negative short term impact on EUR. The currency has held in relatively well despite the current global concerns, but we could expect further EUR selling after month end.

 

The succession battle continues in the UK to replace PM May which is placing pressure on the currency. Analyst are predicting further GBP weakness until a Brexit strategy is clear. GBP hit its lowest levels since Jan19.