March 31st Morning Update

The US$ up, oil prices lower, equity markets are unchanged while US yields hedge lower. US considering releasing 180 million barrels of oil over the next few months from the strategic oil reserve. The news caused oil price to drop over 5%. High gasoline prices are a political liability for Biden, and he’s expected to deliver remarks on his administration’s actions to reduce the impact of Putin’s price hike on energy prices and lower gas prices at the pump later today. Ukrainian forces are preparing for new Russian attacks in the southeast region where Moscow’s guns are now trained after its assault on the capital Kyiv was repelled In other news. South Korea tests first solid-fuel rocket in wake of North Korea ICBM launch COVID. Covid-19 outbreaks slows factory activity in China. In currency markets Norway’s central bank said on Thursday it would buy foreign currency for its sovereign wealth fund in April amid a surge in the country’s oil and gas revenues, weakening the NOK. Trading currencies are mostly down with AUD (-0.20%), NZD (-0.54%), CNY (-0.14%) while the MXN is up 0.11%.

The USD/CAD pair built on its steady intraday ascent through the first half of the European session and climbed to a three-day peak, around the 1.2530. A sharp fall in crude oil prices undermined the commodity-linked Loonie and acted as a tailwind amid strong pickup in the US dollar demand.

Support holds at 1.2450 if breaks look or 1.2383 (Nov 2021), while resistance remains at 1.2553.

Price growth hit multi-decade highs in Italy, France, Germany and Spain in March, intensifying a policy dilemma for the European Central Bank, which needs to fight the price surge but must also avoid choking off already waning growth. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, among the doves on the rate-setting Governing Council, even cautioned on Thursday that the war could force the ECB to ease, rather than tighten.

Support remains to 1.1025 with resistance at 1.1160.

After reaching a 2022 early in the trading session (.8515) dovish comments by ECB Chief Economist pushed the currency pair to the support area near .8450.

After yesterday’s breakout, support levels set at .8425 while resistance climbs to the .8520 area,

The British economy expanded 1.3% on quarter in the final quarter of 2021, higher than the 1.0% growth in the previous period and above forecasts of 1.0%.

Support remains at 1.3090 with resistance set at 1.3175.