Monday July 15th, 2019

US$ starts the week slightly weaker vs major currencies. Mixed data from China with strong retails sales surging 9.8% whilst Q2 GDP growth slows to 27 year lows. GDP data shows signs that impact from US/China trade dispute is starting impact the economy. On a positive note, comments that US firms “may” be allowed to restart Huawei sales within the next 2-4 weeks. A successful resolution to the ongoing trade dispute remains key for global economic growth prospects.

C$ is sitting a 9 month high vs US$, but has struggled to advance its rally. Oil prices remain firm and the prospect of further divergence between US & Canada rates should boost C$ going forward. Bias for C$ to maintain its current strengthening trend.

Eur is slightly firmer vs US$, but remains range bound as investors wait to see ECB’s response to any July fed cuts. On a positive note, sights that the Euro economy is bottoming out is positive but Brexit remains the elephant in the room.

GBP has rebounded slightly off its 6 month lows, but is vulnerable to further weakness. UK bankers remain concerned as UK businesses continue to delay investment decisions until a Brexit strategy is determined. Investors continue to remain sidelined waiting for the announcement of the new PM at the end of the month.

A lot of economic data out this week that could impact short term direction, as well, both BOE and FED chiefs speak separately tomorrow.