Monday November 11, 2019

The escalation in protests in Hong Kong caused investor’s concern resulting in “safe-haven” buying, with JPY strengthening and Chines Yuan selling off. Markets remain optimistic that the phase one trade agreement can be signed, but US Presidents comments Friday raised some concerns. The US$ remains firm verses the major currencies and Euro drifted weaker to a 4 week low. No major data out today, so look for US/China trade comments to dictate direction today.

Oil sold off after the US President comments downplaying reports of the imminent lifting of tariffs Friday. Weaker oil prices and the yet to-be-finalized trade deal is putting negative pressure on C$. The currency could potentially pivot and retest October C$ lows.

The lack of progress with the US/Sino trade deal and Brexit uncertainty is impacting Euro, seeing the currency retesting one month lows. Increasing concerns over the Hong Kong protests could also have an impact on Sino/US trade talks. Trade talk news will dominate market direction today.

The UK’s Q3 GDP data released this morning showed the economy grew at its weakest pace in almost a decade. The weak growth data opens the door to possible BOE easing in 2020. GBP remains relatively stable despite the weak data and political uncertainties. Election campaigning continues with the conservatives still leading in the polls with 31 days until the election. Expect GBP to remain vulnerable to political news today.