Monday October 7th, 2019

US$ starts the week opening close to its one-month trading lows, as focus remains on this week’s trade talks and the ongoing impeachment enquiry. Sino/US trade talks resume October 10th/11th, but optimism dropped somewhat after reports that China intends to limit the scope of a trade deal. Impeachment enquiry continue’s this week, with opinion polls showing a minor shift against the president. Other news, the Japanese cabinet office downgraded its view on the countries economic outlook to “worsening” after weak data today. AUD weakened vs US$ on trade talk concerns, while other major currencies remain stable at the start of the week.

Oil prices firmed slightly spurred by the upcoming trade talks and some supply challenges. Concerns that the Sino/US trade talk scope have been reduced hasn’t impacted the C$ as it opens close to Fridays close.  The loonie remains stable, but could drift weaker on any negative trade talk comments this week.

German recession concerns remain as factory orders dropped more than expected in September. Data also showed Investors’ morale dropped to an almost 7 year low. Euro remains relatively unchanged on the news, focusing on the upcoming Sino/US trade talks for direction. The prospect of fresh US tariff’s and a growing potential of a No-Deal Brexit may have a longer term negative impact on Eur.

EU leaders have expressed doubts about reaching a deal by the EU Summit Oct 17th, as they deem the UK’s plan is insufficient. French President has given UK PM until Friday to present a fresh proposal. UK PM continues to insist the UK will leave deal or no deal Oct 31st. GBP remains stable despite political concerns. 24 days to Brexit deadline.