Thursday April 9th, 2020

It could be a busy pre-Easter day. The US$ index is flat as markets consolidate ahead of a slew of meetings and data releases today. The EU finance ministers meet again a Eurozone rescue package. OPEC++ meet to discuss cutting global output by +10mio BPD. The FED Chairman will be speaking in Washington. Michigan consumer sentiment index and the US Jobless data are both out today. Initial focus will be on the US Jobless claims, but each of the events could impact the markets today.

Oil prices edges +4% higher ahead of the OPEC meeting, with Russia & Saudi Arabia appearing to be in agreement on output cuts. Goldman Sachs & UBS both suggested the cuts won’t be enough to offset the decline in global demand & predict $20 per barrel. C$ weakened despite stronger oil prices and positive signals from the upcoming OPEC meeting. Investor concerns are growing as signs emerge of the economic damage across Canada from the coronavirus. A CFIB Survey said 63% of Canadian small companies are planning layoff’s as cash flow problems mount. The Canadian unemployment data and OPEC meeting will provide direction today. Resistance is seen at 1.4250 with 1.3920 providing support.

Euro holds above the 1.0800 support as markets await a response from the EU finance ministers. Several compromise packages appear to be on the table ranging from Eur 500 bln-Eur 1.5 trillion, with a form of a “Corona-bond” still being favoured by markets. ECB minutes said each month of shutdown lowers GDP by 2-3%. A failure for EU ministers to find an agreement will put additional pressure on Euro. A Break of 1.0800 yields 1.0640, with 1.1050 providing key resistance.

UK PM remains in intensive care for a 3rd day, but reports are that the PM is sitting up. The positive health comments have helped lift the GBP which cautiously rose above 1.24 vs US$. Coronavirus remains a key focus for the UK with virus cases +61k and related deaths +7k. The government is expected to extend the lockdown beyond its expiry on Monday. Intraday US jobless claims and the FED will provide intraday direction.