Thursday November 14th, 2019

Weak Chinese data, Hong Kong tensions and the unresolved Sino/US trade deal saw investors turn back to safe-haven buying. Yen & Chf both rallied, with Aud and CNY coming back under selling pressure. German data showed that the country narrowly avoided recession which was a minor positive for EUR. Today trade talk news, US data releases and Fed Chairs comments will drive intraday market sentiment.

A drop in US crude inventories helped oil prices firm slightly, but uncertainty over US-China trade deal kept US$ stronger vs C$ on safe-haven status. The loonie continues to drift weaker with the potential of retesting 1.3330 level. The primary short term driver for C$ remains the resolution of Sino/US trade talks and the currency will drift with the tone of the talks.

Germany avoided recession after reporting growth for Q3, all be it marginal growth at 0.1% but it beat expectations. Weak Chinese data and the ongoing trade talks will continue to put pressure on EUR which has fallen below the key 1.10 level. Euro hit four week lows, with the potential to extend to 1.0940 next.

The pound ignored the weak retail sales data and trade talks news today remaining at 1.2850 level. Just four weeks until the UK election and the conservatives continue to lead in the polls. The prospect of a resolution to Brexit insight and the potential for further strength in the GBP is high. UK Polls and political news will continue to dominate the GBP direction.