Thursday September 19th, 2019

A busy week for central banks. The feds cut rates 0.25% as expected, whilst central banks in Japan, Switzerland and UK keep their rates unchanged. The outlier Norway saw its central bank raise interest rates. The US$ vs the major currencies remains broadly unchanged as the market digests the Feds mixed message. Oil prices continue to fluctuate with the ongoing middle east tensions and the US treasury going to “substantially increase sanctions” on Tehran. Iran denies involvement in the Saudi attack. Elsewhere Kuwait has raised its security to the highest level as a precaution. Today the focus will remain on Middle-East tensions and resumption of Sino/US trade talks in Washington.

C$ remains trapped within a relatively tight band, weakening trade data is being offset by stronger oil prices. No key data out today, but Friday sees the release to its retail sales data which could give some direction to C$. Sino/US trade talks, Middle East/Oil will provide intraday direction.

EUR strengthened slightly but remains below the key 1.1100 resistance level. Geopolitical risks, possible US tariff’s, lower interest rates and Brexit will hamper Eur ability to strengthen.

GBP remaining relatively resilient vs US$. UK retail sales missed expectations but saw upward revisions. The BOE left rates unchanged, but highlights Brexit delays would likely lead to weaker growth and less domestic inflation. UK supreme court is in its 3rdand final day on whether the suspension of parliament was illegal. 42 days to Brexit deadline.