Tuesday August 13th, 2019

Safe-haven currencies continue to rally on global growth concerns linked to the ongoing Sino/US trade dispute. In Asia, Singapore revised lower its growth forecast for 2019, Chinese RMB hit fresh decade lows vs US$ and officials stated the currency was at “appropriate levels”. In Argentina the conservative president lost in primaries by a large margin prompting market fears and the peso fell 15%. Gold rallied 1% and CHF, Yen & USD all firmed against emerging markets currencies. Watch for US CPI out today for intraday direction.

C$ remains relatively stable considering the current geopolitical concerns. Oil prices edge higher on comments for further production cuts by major producers. The potential of a retest of August highs remain strong and our bias remains to buy US$ dips. No key data out for Canada this week,

EUR remains static around the 1.12 level. German inflation data came in as forecast and tomorrow the market will focus on German and Europe GDP data. Potential for Eur volatility remains with Brexit, political concerns in Italy and expected easing at the Sept ECB meeting.

GBP continues to edge weaker on Brexit concerns and EU stance not to renegotiate the deal it made with former PM May. On a positive note UK wage growth was at decade highs, raising questions about possible BOE easing.