Tuesday October 22nd, 2019

Trade news has dominated currency market trading again today, after US President expressed optimism about clinching a deal with China. The Brexit vote goes back to parliament today and voting is expected at 6pm GMT. Commodity currencies remain strong, but Euro weakened slightly ahead of the Brexit vote today. US$ regained some strength verses the Euro and Yen which is sitting at 6 week lows. A mixture of US data out today, but focus remains on Trade and Brexit news for direction.

Last nights Canadian elections saw the Liberals maintain power but lost seats to the opposition to form a minority government. C$ appears initially un-phased by the election result remaining near 3 month highs vs US$. Positive SIno/US trade talks and firming of oil prices continues to support the C$ and a test of July lows remains achievable.

Euro gave up some ground to the US$ ahead of the Brexit vote today. EU Juncker commented that Brexit is a “waste of time and energy”, whilst Tuck is expected to grant a Brexit delay beyond 31 October. If the UK PM is able to get parliament approval, the EU should follow and all appear ready move forward.

Yet another critical vote looms for Brexit today as the UK PM presents the Withdrawal Bill Act. The PM needs 320 votes to pass the bill and the vote is expected at 6pm GMT today. GBP remains relatively firm vs US$, but todays vote will impact the currency one way or another. Expect GBP to remain vulnerable to swings, but the tone remains optimistic for GBP ahead of the vote.