Wednesday January 16th, 2019

Brexit was voted down in the UK parliament yesterday by a wide margin. The Labour Party has brought a no-confidence vote to the House today calling for a new election, which is expected to be voted down. Interestingly Sterling dropped three cents prior to the vote then rebounded three cents after while the EUR fell 0.5% and has even fallen further this morning. The market believes Brexit is more of an economic threat to the EU than to Britain.

The NAHB Housing Market Index is due today. Expectations are for a rate of 55 down from 56 last month. This is a survey of real estate agents on their reading of sales expectations and therefore is a good leading indicator. This index hit a low of 8 at the height of the recession in January 2009, rose steadily then peaked in December 2017 and falling since then. It indicates that the economy is on a downward track and likely to continue that way. Tomorrow will be announced the important Jobless Claims number.

CAD is holding steady this morning but look for weakening as oil prices decline.