Wednesday November 13th, 2019

The outcome for the US/Sino trade deal remains uncertain after the US President said that a trade deal was close, but at the same time threatened more tariffs if the trade deal fails. Markets responded cautiously with US$ gaining slightly vs the major currencies. The NZ Central bank kept rates on hold, which rallied the NZD on short covering. Other news the HK protests intensifies and Trump impeachment probe goes public. Investors will be watching the US inflation data and the FED Chair speech on capitol hill for direction today.

Oil prices eased and C$ weakened towards its 1 month low vs US$ over the uncertainty of the Sino/US trade deal being signed. Expect to see C$ remain under pressure today taking its lead from US Data and the Fed Chairs speech. Investors will be watching the BOC Governor’s speech tomorrow for guidance on C$ interest rates.

Euro continued to drift weaker, stalling at the 1.10 level following comments yesterday from the US President. His comments were critical of the EU, ahead of Nov 14th deadline to decide to raise tariffs on European carmakers. Euro will continue under pressure until after the decision is known tomorrow if the US will increase tariffs or not.

UK inflation numbers fell to their lowest level in three years, increasing the possibility of a BOE rate cut. The prospect a of no-deal Brexit fell as the conservative party continue lead in the polls for Dec12 election. GBP remains relatively stable in comparison to other currencies boosted by positive Brexit tones. 29 days until the election and a lot can happen until then.