The Morning Update

Friday February 9th , 2024

Written by:
Bernard Gauvin

The USD trades lower, equity markets are mixed, oil and US yields are up. The USD steadily rose on Thursday on the back of positive Initial Jobless Claims figures and FED Powell’s comment that he considered a cut in March “unlikely. Biden not to be charged for knowingly taking classified documents, Special Counsel Hur concluded in his scathing report.

In other news.  Israel carried out deadly air strikes on Gaza hours after Biden described Israel’s response to the October 7th attack as over the top. US Senate advances $95 B Ukraine, Israel aid bill after failed border deal. Zelensky named a new commander-in-chief. Russia-Ukraine completed a 200-prisoner exchange. Kim Jong Un threatens to put an end to South Korea if attacked.

In currency news.  The USD looking at its fourth weekly gain against the JPY, pushing the yen to a 10-month low, The CNY is up 0.05%, JPY down 0.05%, MYR is up 0.13%, TWD is down 0.03%, The AUD and NZD are up 0.20% and 0.70% respectively. The trading currencies are mixed with the MXN up 0.07% and the ZAR hedging lower 0.39%.

In commodity markets. While Oil prices are flat, they remain on track for weekly gains, with tensions persisting in the Middle East after Israel rejected a ceasefire. Oil is flat, Nat Gas is down 2%, Gold and Copper trades lower (0.12% and 0.32 respectively) while silver moves up 0.24%. Agricultural commodities are mixed to end the week with Wheat trading up 0.30% while soybean retreats 0.83%.

USD/CAD halts its four-day losing streak amid an escalated geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the decline in Crude oil prices. Focus will be on the Canadian employment figures out later this morning.

EUR/CAD trading near it lows of the week with very little retracement from the sell-off at the end of January.

EUR ECB Villeroy de Galhau, said on Friday that the central bank “will probably cut rates this year.” His comments came after his colleague Martins Kazaks noted that he is “not optimistic for Spring rate cuts.”

The GBP/EUR is capping the week where it started. While the pair has traded sideways it is still holding its YTD gains.

The GBP is back in its old range after a mild correction The downside for the Pound Sterling seems cushioned as BoE’s Mann delivered hawkish guidance on interest rates.