A weaker US dollar accompanied higher oil prices, while equities and bond yields moved lower at the start of the session. Following yesterday’s US CPI release, which showed continued easing in inflation pressures, attention today turns to a fresh round of economic data for further signals on the outlook. Companies are bracing for a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs, expected as soon as Wednesday, with logistics experts warning the decision could quickly influence import volumes and trigger a rebound in trade flows.
News Headlines. Venezuela has begun releasing detained Americans, the US State Department said, calling it a positive step by interim authorities. Iran’s judiciary chief said fast trials and executions are planned for those detained in nationwide protests, despite warnings from U.S. President Donald Trump, as activists report a deadly crackdown with thousands killed. Iran has warned it would retaliate against U.S. bases in neighbouring countries if Washington intervenes, as some personnel were advised to leave a key U.S. airbase. The United States accused Russia of a dangerous escalation in Ukraine after Moscow launched a nuclear-capable missile, as Russia carried out a second major drone and missile attack in four days, hitting the power grid amid freezing temperatures and killing at least four people.
In currency markets. China reported record export numbers for 2025, posting a historic $1.19tn trade surplus (+20%) despite global turmoil triggered by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs and trade policies. The US has approved Nvidia to sell its H200 AI chips to China, provided there is sufficient domestic supply, easing earlier restrictions over security concerns. USD/JPY pulled back from recent highs as the US dollar softened, while news of a snap election in Japan supported the so-called Takaichi trade. Attention later turns to US data, Fed speakers and Supreme Court rulings. Other Asian currencies as well as AUD and NZD remain stables this morning. In the trading currencies, the ZAR lost 0.1% against the USD while the MXN gained 0.12%.
In commodity markets. Oil prices jumped 1% toward multi-week highs as unrest in Iran and President Trump’s threat of tariffs on countries trading with Tehran added a geopolitical risk premium and raised fears of supply disruptions. Gold hit a record high and silver broke above $90 as tensions in Iran and concerns over the Federal Reserve’s independence boosted safe-haven demand, while softer inflation data supported rate-cut expectations. Metals are higher, with copper up 0.39% and lithium extending its gains, rising 2.2%. Agricultural commodities are mixed,with soybeans up 0.45% and lumber rising 1.7%, while wheat slipped 0.07%.
Current level USDIndex 99.094 Down 0.05%
USD/CAD strengthened for a second session, trading near 1.3900, as the US dollar firmed after US CPI broadly met expectations, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep policy steady this month. While core inflation showed signs of easing, a resilient US labour market continues to support the greenback.
Current level USD/CAD 1.3885 Down0.02%
EUR/CAD traded steadily on January 14, with the cross largely range-bound as broader FX flows and relative euro–Canada fundamentals drove modest, directionless moves.
Current level EUR/CAD 1.6172 Flat
EUR/USD edged modestly higher but remained near one-month lows as the US dollar held a mild bullish bias, with softer-than-expected core CPI failing to alter expectations that the Fed will keep rates steady later this month.
Current level EUR/USD 1.1666 Up 0.01%
GBP/EUR firmed on Wednesday as sterling drew support from cautious positioning ahead of UK growth data, while the euro remained underpinned by easing Eurozone inflation that suggests the ECB may be nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle.
Current level GBP/EUR 1.1546 (0.8660) Up 0.18%
GBP/USD traded steadily as a firmer US dollar offset support for sterling ahead of upcoming UK economic data.
Current level GBP/USD 1.3471 Up 0.06%
Other ccy levels vs C$. GBPCAD 1.8666. AUDCAD.9274,CADJPY 114.38. CADSEK 6.6266. CADNOK 7.2510. CADCHF .5769. CADZAR 11.8119.CADDKK 4.6175. CADCNY 5.0223. CADAED 2.6445.
Other ccy levels vs USD. JPY 158.76. ZAR 13.3993.KWD 0.3079. AUD.6681. NZD.5740. MXN 17.8057. CNY 6.9722. CHF 0.8009. NOK 10.0653SEK 9.2020. INR 90.35. ILS 3.1520. CZK 20.7984.
Other Major X levels. CHFJPY 198.07. AUDCHF .5351.AUDJPY 105.94. EURAUD 1.7431. GBPAUD 2.0130. EURSEK 10.7185. EURNOK 11.7220. GBPCHF1.0771. EURCHF .9328. EURJPY 184.47.
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